Take me to the future

I’ve been trundling about doing Terry’s taxi service in our Landrover today, ferrying Ian, Hilda and our church leaders to and from Oyugis, (our nearest town) for a planning meeting and away day. I was struck by how many motor bike taxis there were in Oyugis. Even compared to last year there seems to have been an exponential increase in the number of young men with motorbikes parked up in mobs, (not sure what the correct collective noun for motor cyclists is), by the side of the road. I’m no economist, (the maths was too hard and the logic was too inscrutable), but I would say the supply side of motorcycle taxis in Oyugis is out of whack with the number of customers.

These bikes are Chinese or Indian makes, between 150 and 250 cc, so not really very big bikes. They ply their trade along the most horrible roads once they have left the main road in Oyugis. They carry incredible loads. Best one I saw today was carrying two passengers with what looked like a 90 kg sack of maize tied on the back. It isn’t unusual to see Mum, Dad and child/children as passengers on one bike.

The other overcrowded mode of transport that I have blogged about previously is the estate car taxi. On our way back from Kosele at the end of the day Ian and I were both astonished to see two ladies get out of the boot of one of these vehicles, leaving a guy and about a dozen chickens remaining.

All of these transport observations have got me thinking – are they a metaphor for economic prospects in Kenya?

The motor bike taxis have superseded the humble boda boda bike, (a fixed gear pushbike with a cushioned passenger seat on top of the parcel rack). These bikes were the principle form of transport over short distances for many people until about two years ago. They have the advantage of being cheap and environmentally friendly. They provided regular employment for a large number of young men and do not travel at dangerously high speeds. On the down side they can only carry one passenger. In addition the passenger cannot be guaranteed a ride up steep hills.

So. The onward march of technology is a more efficient mode of transport, (it can carry more passengers and heavier loads), and provides a more comfortable and , arguably, more enjoyable service for the passenger(s). Most of the boda boda bikes came from China so the trade implications are comparable. At present it seems that all the boda boda operators just migrated to motor bikes, so there are still as many of them plying their trade. How many of them are profitable or making a living is a different question. The increased number of motor bikes has caused more accidents because the boda boda guys still seem to be getting the hang of riding motor bikes. The motor bikes also cause increased distress to pedestrians in the town, (they kind of creep up behind you).

The estate car taxis seem more robust than earlier models and provide a smoother ride, even on the rough road between our place and Oyugis. They also seem to have extra load capacity so are more efficient. However the serious overloading which goes on is a major cause for concern, (as are the associated animal rights issues). The improved design of the cars seems to make it possible to drive faster and, inevitably, more recklessly in pursuit of greater profits and more passengers. In the morning and evening ‘rush hours’ the competition between taxi drivers looks like the Wacky Races, as each driver hurtles along the road in attempt to be the first to get to the next lot of waiting passengers. Again, the toll on the nerves and reflexes of the innocent pedestrian is significant.

So, to summarise. The type of taxi services that are available in Oyugis have changed considerably in the last couple of years. Taxi operators have taken advantage of new technologies to provide ‘improved’ services for customers. So far so good. A half-decent modern economy needs to make the most of advances in technology. Unfortunately the brakes which need to be applied to too rapid a change have not been in much evidence in the taxi business, (motorbike or estate car), in Oyugis – literally. It remains to be seen how many motorbike taxis will remain viable in the long run. Unemployment amongst motorbike taxi operators seems inevitable. In the absence of alternative jobs structural unemployment seems likely. It also seems clear that the training required for the safe operation of this service has not been provided, leading to significant accident and health hazards. The reckless overcrowding as regards passengers and loads carried by both types of taxi adds to this problem. Overcrowding and speeding push the vehicles to the boundaries of safe and sustainable operation. The only winners in this situation are shock absorber manufacturers, hospitals and mortuaries.

Both the estate car and motor bike taxi services also create additional environmental hazards as well as economic problems. In an economy which cannot guarantee uninterrupted supplies of regular petrol it does not make sense to add further to the level of demand for this fuel. It seems widely accepted that  the planet is not capable of sustaining such a significant increase in the number of petrol fuelled vehicles.

It is probably unfair to push the metaphor too far. Kenya is the most prosperous East African economy, despite its current problems. Like most developing countries, looking to catch up with a more western lifestyle and standard of living, it is not unreasonable for Kenyans to want to benefit from technological change. The problem is that it’s not a sustainable aspiration. Perhaps the metaphor should be extended to include the world economy. It seems to be hurtling, at break neck speed, to a pile up, fuelled by the desire to squeeze more out of its diminishing resources. All in the name of progress.

Lamenting the demise of the humble boda boda bike may seem like the worst type of reactionary response to change. Whinging on about the environment may qualify me among the tree hugging fringes of the blogosphere. Be that as it may I bet the Chines will be making push bikes for many years to come.